Central Asia Trajectory Tracker
Every issue of the Target Trajectory Monitor scores five countries on five dimensions: a position (Strong, Mixed, Constrained) and a 12–18-month trajectory. This page is the running record. Cells outlined in gold changed that month; hover for the reasoning. Positions move rarely by design — one month moves trajectories, not standings.
Strong
Mixed
Constrained
▲ improving — stable ▼ deteriorating (12–18-month trajectory)
changed that month
Swipe the table sideways to see all five dimensions. Tap any cell for the reasoning.
| Stability | Economic Resilience | Governance | Strategic Autonomy | Connectivity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar▼ Jun▼ Jul▼ Aug▼ Sep▼ | Mar— Jun— Jul▼ Aug▼ Sep▼ | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun▲ Jul▲ Aug— Sep— |
| Uzbekistan | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar▲ Jun▲ Jul▲ Aug— Sep— | Mar▲ Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep▲ | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar▲ Jun▲ Jul— Aug— Sep— |
| Kyrgyzstan | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul▼ Aug▼ Sep▼ | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar▲ Jun▲ Jul▲ Aug▲ Sep▲ |
| Tajikistan | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep▼ | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun▼ Jul▼ Aug▼ Sep▼ | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— |
| Turkmenistan | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar▼ Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— | Mar— Jun— Jul— Aug— Sep— |
October 2026 column publishes with TTM-10.
Why the arrows moved
June 2026
▲
Kazakhstan — Connectivity: Strong/stable to Strong/improving. Rail, port and eastward capacity expansion registered in the June issue.
—
Uzbekistan — Governance: Mixed/improving to Mixed/stable. Reform momentum plateaued; registered in the June issue.
▼
Tajikistan — Strategic Autonomy: Mixed/stable to Mixed/deteriorating. Registered in the June issue.
—
Turkmenistan — Strategic Autonomy: Mixed/deteriorating to Mixed/stable. Registered in the June issue.
July 2026
▼
Kazakhstan — Governance: Strong/stable to Strong/deteriorating. Constitutional redesign concentrates discretion at the top (July Signal 1).
—
Uzbekistan — Connectivity: Mixed/improving to Mixed/stable. Trans-Afghan route shut for a ninth month (July Risk Flag 2).
▼
Kyrgyzstan — Economic Resilience: Mixed/stable to Mixed/deteriorating. Fuel shock; over 90 per cent Russian petrol dependence (July Signal 2).
August 2026
—
Kazakhstan — Connectivity: Strong/improving to Strong/stable. Rail, port and eastward pipeline capacity continue to expand, but repeated interruption of the CPC route carrying most Kazakh crude now offsets them. Four strikes 17-30 July; loadings down 62 per cent over a fortnight (BIMCO, 5 Aug); shipowners declining the terminal (August Signal 2).
—
Uzbekistan — Economic Resilience: Mixed/improving to Mixed/stable. Gas, oil and coal output all fell in H1 2026 with the gas decline accelerating; jet fuel now imported from Georgia and Iraq against a 27 per cent demand rise (August Signal 1).
Held under review (August)
◦
Kazakhstan — Economic Resilience: Closest cell to a position change: July production down about 14 per cent; Kashagan arbitration and 2.356trn tenge fine enforcement. A second CPC closure or a revised budget oil assumption would take the position to Mixed.
◦
Kazakhstan — Strategic Autonomy: Tokayev proposed a war freeze to Putin at Omsk on 25 July and was publicly refused; Putin ordered a review of military-technical agreements on 29 July. Being refused is not being constrained, and making the proposal exercised the autonomy this cell measures.
◦
Uzbekistan — Connectivity: CKU acceleration offsets a tenth month of trans-Afghan closure.
◦
Kyrgyzstan — Economic Resilience: Supply partly restored but at exchange-traded prices; blackout, electricity imports, own indefinite export ban.
◦
Kyrgyzstan — Strategic Autonomy: No downgrade: Russian-Kyrgyz petroleum supply has always run on bilateral agreements and indicative balances, so no treaty right was lost.
◦
Tajikistan — Economic Resilience: Under review for September: MinFin conceded on 23 July that Rogun cannot be completed without external financing; steepest regional migration fall at minus 17.9 per cent against the highest remittance exposure. Entry numbers are not remittance numbers; September remittance data is the trigger.
◦
Turkmenistan — Connectivity: Tbilisi documents, five EBRD memoranda and eTIR are pre-financing. Memoranda are not conversion.
September 2026
▼
Tajikistan — Economic Resilience: Constrained/stable to Constrained/deteriorating. Summer fuel prices rose by a quarter to a half in Dushanbe, and the industry ministry itself names energy, fuel and logistics as the binding constraints on its factories (September issue).
▲
Uzbekistan — Governance: Mixed/stable to Mixed/improving. The census has been converted into registers, deadlines and institutions, a measurable gain in administrative capability whatever its uses prove to be (September Signal 1).
Held under review (September)
◦
Kazakhstan — Economic Resilience: Production plan cut after some 3.5 million tonnes of cumulative CPC losses; Karachaganak repair runs from September. Counter-signal on record: S&P upgrade to BBB, the first in a decade (22 Aug), to be weighed in October.
◦
Uzbekistan — Economic Resilience: Held at stable against two advisers’ downgrade calls. Gas at a nine-year low with winter ahead, but petrol output up 8.9 per cent and imports collapsing through substitution; August already moved this cell on the gas story. Down-triggers for October: rationing, an import surge, or electricity deficits under winter load.
◦
Kazakhstan — Strategic Autonomy: Balkhash is now this cell’s standing watch item: 85 per cent Russian financing on a 60-year asset. The arrow moves when fuel and financing terms surface, not on signature.
◦
Turkmenistan — Connectivity: Memoranda are not conversion. October trigger: Herat section commissioning and first deliveries against the governor’s two-month claim.
◦
Turkmenistan — Economic Resilience: The refinery fire and outage remain single-source (exile media); verification is the priority.
◦
Uzbekistan — Strategic Autonomy and Connectivity: Signatures and announcements, not converted capacity, despite the India, Azerbaijan and Poti month. Revisit in October on the DP World groundbreaking, Anaklia specifics, and Korea summit deliverables.
The Monitor launched with a March 2026 baseline issue; monthly publication began with the June issue, so there are no April or May columns. Methodology: positions and trajectories are set at each issue's close against the previous month's record, so arrows reflect genuine movement rather than a fresh guess. Assessments draw on Russian-, Kyrgyz-, Tajik- and Uzbek-language primary reporting alongside English-language sources, verified to the standard described at target-research.org/ttm. The tracker is updated on each issue's publication day. © Target Research, Bishkek.